Monday Mar 27, 2023

49ers vs Eagles Odds: Expert Player Prop Picks for DeVonta Smith, Miles Sanders, More – The Action Network


Adjust to Sean Koerner Inside the Movement App to get all his guessting picks, collectively with his NFL participant props.

49ers Odds +2.5 (-105) Eagles Odds -2.5 (-115) Moneyline +126 / -148 Over/Beneath 46.5 (-110 / -110) Time Sunday, 3 p.m. ET Tv FOX Odds by way of FanDuel.

Eagles vs 49ers Decides: Player Props

49ers vs. Eagles Matchup Evaluation: DVOA Breakdown

General DVOA 6 6

Move DVOA 3 1 Rush DVOA 13 21 General DVOA 3 1 Move DVOA 9 5 Rush DVOA 1 2

What They’re Going Up In the direction of

  • Eagles tempo: 1st
  • Opplace performs allowed: Twenty third
  • Blitz proportion: Sixteenth
  • Strain price: 2nd
  • Zone vs. Man: Twelfth zone, 18th man

QB Brock Purdy

I’m Based mostly on all of Purdy’s props as of Wednesday afternoon, however I do assume he carries a ton of upside Inside the dashing market.

From day one, I’ve said Purdy might rush for 20 or extra yards per recreation if he needed to. He hAs a Outcome of the velocity and elusiveness To take action, however he has solely leveraged his dashing capability To flee pressure to throw Rather than scramble So far as a starter.

The Eagles have genepriced the second-highest pressure price on the season, so tright here’s An alternative they pressure Purdy out of the pocket enough that he does scramble A pair of occasions and rush for 15 or extra yards.

Purdy’s scramble price has been so low, I can’t enterprise him for Greater than 8.5 yards, however I might not be surprised if he clears 10 yards Together with his legs On this recreation.

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RBs Christian McCaffrey & Elijah Mitchell

McCaffrey (calf) and Mitchell (groin) missed apply Tuesday, so We ought to always monitor their accidents all by way of the week. Nboth again Is predicted To overlook The sport, Neverthemuch less it does make it strong to enterprise them proper now.

That is typically a matchup wright here the 49ers will probably lean closely on their run recreation To revenue from the Eagles‘ run-funnel protection.

Mitchell doesn’t have a dashing yard prop up but, however I Shall be Making an try to again his over if it’s under 40.5. I Simply like the 49ers moneyline On this spot, and Mitchell’s dashing over would Even be The proper prop To incorpoprice in a SGP.

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WR Brandon Aiyuk

Aiyuk has A troublesome matchup this week as He’ll probably line up throughout from both Darius Slay or James Bradberry More typically than not. He’s gifted enough To beat the troublesome matchup and has cleared this quantity in 5 of 8 video recreations with Brock Purdy under center. This isn’t a market I’ll be Making an try To take a place On this week.

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WR Deebo Samuel

With CMC/Mitchell each banged up, we might see Deebo used extra Inside the againfield this week. Kyle Shanahan Can additionally probably use him out of the slot extra So as to maintain away from Slay/Bradberry cowlage and create mismatches. Deebo clearly provides a ton of upside in each his dashing and receiving markets, however as of now, I’m Based mostly on the market.

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WR Jauan Jennings

Jennings has lined up Inside the slot On The very biggest price (53%) of All of the 49ers pass catchers. Tright here’s An alternative Kyle Shanahan makes use of Samuel or Aiyuk Inside the slot extra this week To maintain them away from Eagles corneragains Darius Slay and James Bradberry on The floor. Which might probably kick Jauan on The floor to face both Slay/Bradberry, Which might severely decrease hIs predicted goal price.

I’ve enterpriseed Jennings To draw about three goals this week, and most of these will probably come when He is lined up Inside the slot, which comes with a decrease Common Depth of Target (at a decrease aDot).

With that, I really feel the market We now Want to focus on is his longest reception To maintain under 14.5 yards (-125 at BetMGM). Jennings solely cleared this quantity in seven of 17 video recreations, however he has primeped it in each of the 49ers’ playoffs video recreations. Which means they’re inflating his quantity.

I’m enterpriseing Jennings To maintain under this about 60% of the time and would guess this Right down to -130.

Decide: Jauan Jennings Longest Reception Beneath 14.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

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TE George Kittle

I’m displaying some slight worth on Kittle to go under 47.5 yards (enterpriseed median of 42.5) since this is A troublesome matchup. The Eagles rank sixth in DVOA against TEs and have solely allowed 5 TEs to clear this quantity.

I don’t assume tright here’s enough worth to warrant a guess on Kittle’s under, and We’re already Sort of investing in that with our DeVonta Smith guess, which you’ll Look at under.

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What They’re Going Up In the direction of

  • 49ers tempo: Twenty sixth
  • Opplace performs allowed: Twenty eighth
  • Blitz proportion: Twenty first
  • Strain price: Eleventh
  • Zone vs. Man: Fifth zone, Twenty seventh man

QB Jalen Hurts

That is typically a matchup of power vs. power As a Outcome of the Eagles (No. 1 Rush DVOA) face a 49ers protection that ranks second in Rush DVOA. It’s a recreation wright here the Eagles May be not as environment nice working the ball, which might pressure Hurts into extra pass circumstances on third down or As a Outcome of of a trailing recreation script.

The 49ers are additionally truthfully weak to downfield pass makes an try. They’ve allowed the fifth-highest yards per try average on pass makes an try of 20 or extra yards down The sector. Hurts has some sneaky upside as a passer On this spot, however I’m Based mostly on the market Inside the 245-250 differ.

The 49ers haven’t confronted many twin-menace QBs, Neverthemuch less Those They’ve confronted have been Almost in-line with expectations: Dak Prescott (4/22/0), Geno Smith (4/28/0), Jarrett Stidham (7/34/0), Simplyin Herbert (5/22/0), Russell Wilson (6/17/0), Simplyin Fields (11/28/0).

I’m Based mostly on the market on Hurts’ dashing prop, as his prop Is sensible Inside the 45-50 differ.

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RB Miles Sanders

I gave out Miles Sanders Beneath 15.5 rush makes an try (-130) on the podcast and now The road is Right down to 14.5 Throughout the place. I’m much less Considering about Beneath 14.5 rush makes an try because A lot of The worth is gone.

To illustprice just how useful a rush try is worth On this differ, This is what I’m enterpriseing for Sanders:

  • Over 13.5 (53.6%) Beneath 13.5 (46.4%)
  • Over 14.5 (43%) Beneath 14.5 (57%)
  • Over 15.5 (33.1%) Beneath 15.5 (66.9%)

As You will Have The power to see, I’ve Sanders ending with 15 rush makes an try (precisely) round 10% of the time. I might Avoid guessting this at 14.5, however maintain An eye fixed if it goes again As a lot as 15.5.

I’m presently displaying worth on Sanders Beneath 1.5 receptions at -165 at at BetMGM, as of Thursday afternoon. Sanders has been held under this quantity in six straight video recreations and the underlying knowledge suggests this enchancment ought to proceed.

Over the previous 4 video recreations, Sanders Is merely averaging a 26% routes run price wright hereas Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott proceed to eat into his receiving utilization. Sanders typically isn’t in on third downs or when the Eagles run their 2-minute drill, That are The good occasions for a RB To choose up goals.

Plus, Hurts is extra More probably to scramble Versus examine Right down to his working again, so tright here are a ton Of issues going against Sanders On this market.

I’m enterpriseing him nearer to 1.1 receptions and a 70% probcapability To maintain under 1.5. We are getting pretty a Little bit of worth right here contemplating his truthful worth Should be nearer to -230. I might guess this Right down to -180.

Decide: Miles Sanders Beneath 1.5 receptions (-165)

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WR A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown is Dealing with a hip damage and Will not be 100% for this recreation.

The 49ers play zone On the fifth-highest price, which isn’t best for Brown. He has a 3.27 yards per route run price vs. man and a 1.93 mark vs. zone this season.

I’m displaying some slight worth on his under 70.5 receiving yards (enterpriseed median nearer to 66.5), however he has A Number of Outcomes this week. I really feel We will exploit that in my DeVonta Smith play under.

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WR DeVonta Smith

I simulated The sport 10,000 occasions To tug odds of “most receiving yards Inside The sport” and This is what it spit out:

  • A.J. Brown 28.8%
  • DeVonta Smith 28.2%
  • Deebo Samuel 11.5%
  • Dallas Goedert 11.0%
  • George Kittle 8.5%
  • Brandon Aiyuk 6.5%
  • Christian McCaffrey 3.0%
  • Quez Watkins 1.5%
  • Jauan Jennings 1.0%

Based mostly on these, I’m getting A great worth of +250 for Smith To steer The sport in receiving yards, however I really feel tright here are a quantity of elements that make him Much extra useful On this market.

Brown is Dealing with a hip damage, so he May be not 100% And will be used as extra of a decoy. He additionally fares Tons higher against man cowlage, so he’s much less More probably to thrive against a zone heavy group Simply like the 49ers. Dallas Goedert May even see Fred Warner in cowlage at occasions, and Warner is having fun with at an elite diploma proper now. He even prevented CeeDee Lamb from catching A pair of passes final week.

Smith will probably be Jalen Hurts prime goal in what Should be a extra pass-heavy recreation script we typically see from the Eagles, Who’re additionally probably going to face extra third-down circumstances this week. Smith has been Hurts’ prime goal on third downs this yr.

The 49ers have been weak to downfield goals this yr. They’ve allowed the fifth-highest yards per try on pass makes an try of 20 or extra yards down The sector.

The 49ers have a ton of weapons Inside the passing recreation, Which suggests Purdy will probably unfold the ball round, which decreases the ceiling Of every pass catcher. Plus, the Eagles rank first in pass DVOA and Twenty first against the run. The 49ers will probably lean on their run recreation On this matchup.

I like The worth We’re getting on Smith To steer The sport in receiving yards at +270 (FanDuel) and would guess it Right down to +240.

What’s QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Movement Community function That permits clients to mechanically pre-load their guess slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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TE Dallas Goedert

Goedert took benefit of The simple matchup final week against a Giants protection that ranks Thirty first in DVOA against TEs with a 5/58/1 line. Now, he faces a stingy 49ers protection That would use Warner to cowl him at occasions this week.

I’m Based mostly on Goedert’s market this week, however he has a Little bit of a statistical anomaly this yr in that regardmuch less of averaging 4.6 receptions a recreation, he has but to have a recreation wright here he finishes with 4 receptions precisely, regardmuch less of it being his Most probably Outcome (18.8%).

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